Alcohol exposure between 1990 and 2017 and forecasts until 2030: a global modelling study

Alcohol use is a leading risk factor for global disease burden, and data on alcohol exposure are crucial to evaluate progress in achieving global non-communicable disease goals. A new report in Lancet presents estimates on the main indicators of alcohol exposure for 189 countries from 1990–2017, with forecasts up to 2030.

The authors found that between 1990 and 2017, global adult per-capita consumption increased from 5·9 L to 6·5 L, and is forecasted to reach 7·6 L by 2030. The report forecasts that abstinence will decrease to 40% by 2030 and the proportion of current drinkers will increase to 50% by 2030. In 2017, 20% of adults were heavy episodic drinkers (compared with 1990 when it was estimated at 18·5%, and this prevalence is expected to increase to 23% in 2030.

Based on these data, global goals for reducing the harmful use of alcohol are unlikely to be achieved, and known effective and cost-effective policy measures should be implemented to reduce alcohol exposure.

Citation: Manthey J, Shield K, Rylett M, Hasan OS, Probst C. JR Alcohol exposure between 1990 and 2017 and forecasts until 2030: a global modelling study. Lancet.2019https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(18)32744-2

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